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☆ Oil prices aren't the Fed's biggest problem right now — American demand is, says an economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Israel's strike on Iran caused oil prices to spike, sparking fears of rising inflation. But US inflation is more impacted by strong domestic demand than by oil prices, an economist told Bloomberg TV. Oil prices gained as much as 4% following reports of the attack before later subsiding. Services is demand, and that demand needs to come from somewhere — and that's a robust economy," Chaar told Bloomberg. "I would say the biggest challenge here for the Fed is to manage the demand of the US economy," Chaar said.

Persons: —, Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier, Jerome Powell, Chaar Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed, Bloomberg TV, Federal, Services, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Iran, Israel, —, Swiss, America

☆ Hot inflation and high estimates could ruin the Q1 earnings season. Why investment chiefs are increasingly worried — and the bull case that profits are still underestimated.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Without strong profit progress in the Q1 earnings season starting in mid-April, US stocks may surrender their 8.2% year-to-date gain. Loftier estimates, top-heavy earnings are reasons for worryFirms have a rather low bar to clear in the upcoming earnings season, as is often the case. The market's largest companies are disproportionately driving earnings growth in addition to stock returns, Goldman Sachs found. The Q1 earnings season begins in earnest on Friday as big banks share results. Early reporters have beaten earnings estimates by 13.5%, Golub wrote, which he added is more than double the typical rate.

Persons: Richard Saperstein, James Ragan, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, we're, Saglimbene, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Jonathan Golub, Golub, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Treasury Partners, DA Davidson, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bel Air Investment Advisors, UBS, Institute for Supply Management Locations: America

☆ Biden’s manufacturing industry is expanding, but that could be bad for inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-07 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But a resurgence in the industry could complicate the Federal Reserve’s ongoing inflation fight, either delaying the first interest rate cut or resulting in fewer cuts this year, some economists say. Interest rates have been at a two-decade high since July, after the Fed raised rates aggressively over the prior year and a half. The economy picking up further strength would spook Wall Street because of what it means for interest rates — and some manufacturers say they’re optimistic about the future. The Bank of Canada announces its latest interest rate decision. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases March inflation data.

Persons: Joe Biden, ”, Tom Barkin, “, Mary Daly, ” Daly, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, ” Kashkari, ” Richard de Chazal, Blair, they’re “, Amazon’s, It’s, Ramishah Maruf, Amazon, haven’t, Read Organizations: Washington CNN, Institute for Supply Management, Congress, Fed, ” Richmond Fed, ” San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dow, Blair Equity Research, Amazon, Fresh, Delta Air Lines, US Labor Department, Index, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Statistics, Constellation Brands, European Central Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, State, National Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: Richmond , Virginia, ” San, Las Vegas, India, Wells Fargo, Progressive, BlackRock

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns the AI and economic recovery narratives fueling stocks are weak as analyst optimism sours — and says the Fed is fueling a bubble as valuation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking

☆ Jim Cramer says Nelson Peltz's defeat is worrisome for Disney's stock and he wants to sell more
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Disney wins: Disney was successful at fending off Trian Partners in Nelson Peltz's quest for two board seats at the company. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Nelson, Jim, Steve Cohen, We're, Michael Cembalest, Levi Strauss, Slim Jim, Conagra, Lamb Weston, There's, Jim Cramer's, Mickey Mouse, Joe Raedle Organizations: CNBC, Treasury, Institute for Supply, PMI, Disney, Trian Partners, Apple, JPMorgan, Procter, Gamble, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Walt Disney World, Getty Locations: Washington, Orlando , Florida

☆ 10-year Treasury yield edges higher as investors await economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%. The 2-year Treasury note yield was up around 1 basis point at 4.709%. The 10-year Treasury note briefly broke above 4.4% in intraday trade on Tuesday to notch its highest level since late November. The 10-year Treasury note yield moved higher on Wednesday, building on gains from the previous session as investors await the release of further U.S. economic data. The market moves come as investors track economic data and closely monitor clues from Fed policymakers about the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2024.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mary Daly, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Traders, Cleveland Federal, San Francisco Fed, PMI, Institute for Supply Management Locations: U.S

☆ Steve Eisman says the Fed shouldn't cut rates, risks creating a stock market bubble if it does
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

If the Federal Reserve follows through on plans to lower interest rates it could lead to a stock market bubble, in the view of Neuberger Berman portfolio manager Steve Eisman. The central bank last month penciled in three potential quarter percentage point rate cuts by the end of 2023, along with multiple other cuts coming in future years. I personally think there should be no Fed cuts this year," he said during an interview on CNBC's " Squawk Box ." My actual fear is that if the Fed were actually to cut rates, the market becomes bubblicious and then we have a real problem. Markets in fact have grown nervous this week as hopes have waned for rate cuts.

Persons: Neuberger Berman, Steve Eisman, Jerome Powell, Eisman, Powell Organizations: Federal, Institute for Supply Management, Stanford Business, Government, Society, Labor Department, Fed

☆ Chair Powell says the Fed isn’t more tolerant of higher inflation. Some economists disagree
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some economists interpreted that as a sign that the Fed is now more tolerant of higher inflation. Powell pushed back on the perception that the central bank has grown more comfortable with inflation being higher for longer than expected in his post-meeting news conference. and my sense coming out of this month’s meeting was that Fed Chair Powell wants to get this easing cycle going sooner rather than later. What’s allowing the Fed to be patient or more tolerant of higher inflation? They’re willing to essentially look through some of the bumpiness in the inflation data at the beginning of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That’s, Powell, “, ” Powell, “ We’re, Mohamed El, Erian, ”, Bell, Lydia Boussour, they’re, What’s, we’ve, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Read, Levi Strauss, Tupperware Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Fed, Home Depot, Home, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Maine Foods, Dave, Buster’s Entertainment, US Labor Department, US Commerce Department, Stanford University Locations: EY, Cal

☆ Dollar steady ahead of Powell testimony, bitcoin takes breather
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar was largely steady on Wednesday, as traders avoided making large bets ahead of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as well as the European Central Bank's, or ECB, rate decision and U.S. jobs data later this week. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was slightly up but stayed below a record high reached in a volatile overnight session. Powell is expected to reinforce that the Fed will wait for more data before making any rate cuts. Elsewhere, the ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates at a record 4% at its policy meeting on Thursday. Markets are also keeping a close eye on the world's largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin , after it surged to a record high overnight before retreating sharply.

Persons: Jerome Powell, bitcoin, Powell's, Powell, Carol Kong, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Federal, European Central Bank, Institute for Supply Management, Traders, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ECB Locations: U.S

☆ A bigger pool of American workers could continue to slow inflation even further
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.

Persons: Mary Daly, “, ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, ’, ”, Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign

☆ Americans have racked up a trillion dollars in credit card debt. That’s actually okay
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.

Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA

☆ A trusted indicator is fueling recession warnings from Jeremy Grantham and other gurus. What you should know about the Leading Economic Index.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.

Persons: —, Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American

BANGKOK (AP) — Shares were mixed Tuesday in Asia, where Chinese stocks surged after a government investment fund said it would step up stock purchases and a report said leader Xi Jinping was set to meet with officials to discuss the markets. The fund periodically steps up buying of shares in big state-owned banks and other companies to counter heavy selling pressure in the Chinese markets. On Monday, benchmarks in Shanghai and the smaller market in Shenzhen bounced between small gains and big losses, while share prices of state-run banks and other big companies rose. The Fed has yanked the federal funds rate to its highest level since 2001 to bring down high inflation. But there's also an upside for stocks from the U.S. economy's blasting through worries about a possible recession.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Xi, Hong, Seng, Australia's, India's, Jerome Powell, there's Organizations: Bloomberg, CSI, Central Huijin Investment, Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Shanghai, Shenzhen, South Korea, Bangkok

☆ A soft landing is now likely. But Americans will still deal with unaffordable housing
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-04 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares mostly rose Friday, helped by optimism about technology shares following a Wall Street rally led by big tech stocks. On Wall Street, U.S. stocks bounced back in a widespread rally following their worst day since September. Such data could give the Federal Reserve more of the evidence it wants of a slowdown in inflation before it will deliver the cuts to interest rates that investors crave. Traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in May, after pushing back expectations from March. High interest rates intentionally slow the economy, and they undercut prices for investments.

Persons: Australia's, Korea's Kospi, Merck, Etsy Organizations: TOKYO, Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Big Tech, Apple, Meta, Facebook, Federal, crave, Elliott Investment Management, , New York Community Bancorp, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, New York Community Bancorp, Institute for Supply Management, Traders, Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, U.S . Locations: Shanghai, U.S, ,

☆ This week will make it clearer if the Fed will cut interest rates in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.

Persons: that’s, ”, Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, “, ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron

☆ 'You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0': A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.

Persons: —, Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ These 7 recession indicators are still glaring bright red, signaling a sharp downturn could be imminent despite surging GDP and low unemployment
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Combine that with a steady pace of monthly job gains, a historically-low unemployment rate of 3.7%, and inflation under 4%, and it looks like a soft landing is in view. But according to a list of recession indicators from ClearBridge Investments, a downturn is still likely in the months ahead. The Conference BoardThen there's wage growth, which is also declining at a pace typically seen in recessionary environments. On a three-month moving average basis, median wage growth has fallen to 5.2% in December 2023 from 6.7% in August 2022. With the economy holding strong in recent months, consensus has swung heavily back in favor of a soft landing.

Persons: Jeff Schulze, Schulze, Louis Fed, Louis, That's Organizations: Business, ClearBridge Investments, Fourth, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Louis Fed

☆ Dollar gains on yen, bitcoin edges up before expected SEC decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The SEC was expected to announce later in the day whether it will approve applications from asset managers Ark Investments and 21Shares (ABTC.S) to launch a spot bitcoin ETF. More than a dozen bitcoin ETF applications - including from BlackRock (BLK.N), Fidelity and VanEck - are also pending with the agency. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out on Thursday is the next likely driver of dollar direction. It is expected to show that headline inflation rose 0.2% in the month and by 3.2% on an annual basis. Anticipation of a positive SEC decision on ETFs, which is likely to draw billions of dollars in new investments, has boosted bitcoin prices in the past two months.

Persons: Exchange Commission's, Marc Chandler, Chandler, bitcoin, Chris Weston, Ethereum Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Securities, Exchange, SEC, Ark Investments, BlackRock, Fidelity, Institute for Supply Management, Index, Fed, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Bannockburn, New York, Japan

☆ Gold posts weekly decline as dollar, yields climb
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,044.21 per ounce after falling and then rising by about 1% earlier in the session. "First, the nonfarm payrolls data came in stronger than expected, due to which we saw some pressure applied to gold ... Both the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels in three weeks, heading for their best weeks since July and October, respectively. On the physical front, gold buying in major consumer India rose this week, as domestic prices fell back from record highs. Palladium fell 0.9% to a three-week low of $1,027.11 in its ninth consecutive session of declines and was down 6.4% on the week.

Persons: David Meger, Saxo, Ole Hansen Organizations: Singapore Gold, Institute for Supply Management, High, U.S ., U.S . Federal Locations: Singapore, India

☆ US job openings hit more than 2-1/2-year low as labor market cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.30 million job openings in October. Job openings decreased by 168,000 in the finance and insurance industry, while real estate, rental and leasing had 49,000 fewer positions. The job openings rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.6% in September. "The current state of the labor market suggests no further recalibration is necessary to bring the labor market back into balance," said Nick Bunker, director of economics research at Indeed Hiring Lab. They also described the labor market as remaining "very competitive," and "trying to get to full staff levels."

Persons: Brian Snyder, Rubeela Farooqi, Nick Bunker, Conrad DeQuadros, November's, Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, Labor, Survey, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, United Auto Workers, UAW, Comerica Bank, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, White Plains , New York, South, Midwest, New York, East, Dallas

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 24, 2022. "Presently, the markets price in around a 125bp (basis points) cut from the Fed next year," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a note. Investors will also parse data on U.S. services sector activity from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday. ET, Dow e-minis were down 115 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 20 points, or 0.44%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 103 points, or 0.65%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shristi Achar A; Editing by Pooja DesaiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Ozkardeskaya, Amruta Khandekar, Pooja Desai Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Swissquote Bank, Labor Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Nvidia, Dow e, CVS, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares declined Tuesday on heavy selling of property and technology shares. A key report on Japanese inflation showed core consumer prices in Tokyo, which excludes volatile food prices, rose 2.3% from a year ago, slowing from previous months' increases. Hopes that inflation is easing enough to allow the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates have pushed shares higher in recent weeks. The sector is a key component in the U.S. economy and accounts for the majority of the nation’s jobs. The government’s monthly jobs report for November is due on Friday.

Persons: Hang Seng, Australia's, Biden, Uber, Brent Organizations: TOKYO, Shanghai, Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Technology, Microsoft, Nvidia, Netflix, Alaska Air Group, Hawaiian Airlines, Spotify, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management, FactSet, U.S . Locations: Tokyo, U.S

☆ Here’s why some bond traders care so much about the US government’s budget deficit nowadays
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

And as the mountain of debt keeps piling up, and the government’s budget deficit remains massive, some bond traders are now joining politicians in decrying the government’s ever-growing financial obligation. Those bond traders are seemingly up in arms over the government’s gaping budget deficit — something that occurs when the government’s spending outstrips revenues — which currently stands at roughly $67 billion so far for the current fiscal year. For the full 2023 budget year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit stood at a staggering $1.5 trillion. How do we manage the budget deficit? Our interest rate team is looking at the 10-year (US Treasury) yield to be closer to 4% than 5% next year.

Persons: ”, Jerome Powell, Bell, Joe Quinlan, It’s, it’s, what’s, You’d, Powell, ” Powell, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Treasury Department, Congressional, Office, Federal, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Treasury, Spelman College, US Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Atlanta

☆ Powell says Fed to move 'carefully' on interest rates with risks 'more balanced'
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Having come so far so quickly, the (Federal Open Market Committee) is moving forward carefully, as the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced." But his remarks also reflected increased confidence that the current 5.25%-5.50% policy rate may well be adequate to complete the job. The Fed meets on Dec. 12-13 and is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged for the third meeting in a row. "The pace at which the economy is creating new jobs remains strong, and has been slowing toward a more sustainable level ... Shortly before Powell delivered his remarks, a key reading on the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector showed activity there remained subdued and factory employment declined.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, Helene Gayle, Lisa Cook, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Monetary Fund's, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Spelman College, Fed, Spelman, Institute, Supply Management's, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Atlanta

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